Economic cycle dating

Posted by / 11-May-2020 06:17

Japan’s 1993–94 recession was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–99 can be described as L-shaped.

Korea, Hong Kong and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–98, although Thailand’s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped.

Although different indicators of economic activity peaked at different times during the year, as is typically the case at business cycle turning points, the configuration of the downturn among the main series clearly suggested a July peak.

Although not all economic indicators had regained their 1979-80 peaks by the summer of 1981, the committee agreed that the resurgence of economic activity in the previous year clearly constituted a business cycle recovery.

The term animal spirits has been used to describe the psychological factors underlying economic activity. Shiller wrote that the term "...refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith.

When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people." High levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession".

Using data on user attributes and interactions from an online dating site, we estimate mate preferences, and use the Gale-Shapley algorithm to predict stable matches.

The predicted matches are similar to the actual matches achieved by the dating site, and the actual matches are approximately efficient.

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However, we underpredict some of the correlation patterns; search frictions may play a role in explaining the discrepancy.

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